Sunday, July 17, 2016

No plan survives


Scott’s book deals with the failure of large-scale state-initiated schemes of social engineering. Based on various experiences in the 19th and 20th century, such schemes seem possible when four conditions are given:
  • Socities that are administratively ordered; they have to be “legible” for the state to be able to intervene.
  • Decision-makers believing in the possibility of designing the social and natural order (“high modernist ideology”).
  • An authoritarian state willing to use its coercive power to bring high modernist schemes to life.
  • A civil society unable to resist the state imposing high modernist schemes.

Scott shows how European state-building has been based on the harmonization and standardization of units of measurement and land tenure rights (including the introduction of the necessary documents and statistics). While harmonization and standardization constituted a great simplification of local realities, they made society "legible" for state administrators. Originally artificial inventions such as land titles also became important elements in peoples’ daily lives.

The first high-modernist scheme Scott examines is 20th century urban planning, particularly the work of Le Corbusier and Oscar Niemeyer’s Brasilia. These schemes focused on creating “modern” cities with single purpose districts (separating shopping, workplace, residences) and were organized for motorized traffic. Scott argues that modernist urban planning failed to create cities where people actually want to live. The lack of informal, unplanned public spaces (sidewalks, cafés) prevents the emergence of the networks of relations that are central to an attractive and functional urban life.

The second high modernist scheme examined is Lenin’s concept of the revolutionary mass party, which is contrasted with Rosa Luxembourg and Aleksandra Kollontay’s views. Lenin takes a top down view of revolution, with party cadres having to guide “unconscious masses”. Luxembourg and Kollontay, on the other hand, take a much more bottom-up approach. In their vision, revolutionary parties should take advantage of the lessons learned and creative energies of the working class.

Two more chapters are devoted to land reforms in the Soviet Union and Tanzania. Soviet collectivization put an emphasis on mechanization, mono-cultures, centralized procurement and planning. Inefficient from a pure production perspective, collectivization still greatly enhanced the Soviet Union political stability. Specifically, it made rural society “legible” for the state, destroyed potentially dissident peasant communes, and made peasants dependent on the state.

Finally, Scott delivers a fierce critique of “high-modernist agriculture”. Modernist agriculture is marked by monocultures rather than polycultures, permanent fields rather than shifting cultivation, the indiscriminate employment of fertilizer, and an emphasis on short-term outputs. Scott argues that high-modernist agriculture is based on a version of agricultural science that aims to isolate central variables in experiments rather than taking into account the complex localized interactions of soil, temperature, climate etc..

In two concluding chapters, Scott makes the argument for “metis”, the ancient Greek term for practical knowledge. “Metis” is acquired through experience in a constantly changing and complex environment. „Metis“ is based on local and customary knowledge and mainly concerned with the application of rules of thumb in local environments rather than the deduction of universal principles. Scott also provides four pieces of advice for planners: take small steps; favor reversibility; plan on surprises; and plan on human inventiveness.

Overall a nice read, making a sensible argument. The amount of historical material covered is nothing less than impressive. Planning for public policy of any kind of should take  Scott’s insights on the pitfalls’s of large-scale social engineering into account. Some thinking on military planning continues for instance to be coined by an overly mechanistic understanding of how military actions can achieve desired effects in complex war settings. A similar reproach can be made against overly simplistic understandings of nation-building in the aftermath of military interventions.

Still, Scott’s argument didn’t fully convince me. First, Scotts fails to develop counterfactuals that would demonstrate the pernicious effects of some of the high-modernist schemes he presents. How much better would the developing world be off on average without the introduction of high-modernist agriculture? Has modern urban planning made city inhabitants’ life worse on average? Would a communist revolution inspired by the ideas of Rosa Luxemburg really have taken a more human face? In a related vain, the whole book sometimes seems overly long. Scott introduces a tremendous amount of details on the failed modernization schemes he presents, but not all of it seems necessary to the case he is trying to build. Finally, some of the implications are also not too new given that the book was written in the 1990s. Scott’s book could have profited from engaging with say Herbert Simon’s work on bounded rationality, Charles Lindblom’s work on incrementalism, and FriedrichHayek’s works (without ever having read the latter).

Random movie/ TV reference:

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