Friday, January 20, 2017

When a man loves a woman





A collection of short stories. About, well, men without women. The German translation is already available, the English one out in May 2017. Great stuff.

  • Kafaku, a widowed actor, has lost his driver's licence and is relying on a young female driver, Misaki. He begins telling how he started meeting his deceased wife's lover to talk about his late spouse.
  • Kitaru, a young Japanese studying to be admitted to university, asks his friend Tanimura to take out his long-term girlfriend Erika for a date. On the date, Erika explains the problem of being together with somebody one has known all life long. A couple of weeks later, Kitaru disappears. Sixteen years later, Erika and Tanimura meet again. It turns out Kitaru left Tokyo and later Japan after Erika had had an affair with another man.
  • Dr. Tokai, a middle-aged succesful plastic surgeon and happy bachelor, has been together with dozens of women, but never with a serious intention to get married. When he finally falls in love with a woman, this sets in motion a process of physical and psychological decline.
  • For reasons that are not discussed, Habara is unable to leave the house he is staying in. His only contact to the outside world is a nurse, Scheherazade, who regularly comes to visit him, sleeps with him, and tells him stories.
  • Kino, freshly separated from his wife, takes over an aunt's cafe and turns it into a bar. After a couple of surreal events, he temporarily closes the bar and heads for a journey in search of himself through various Japanese cities.
  • In a short story clearly inspired by Franz Kafka, a man wakes up in bed barely capable of moving, having been turned into "Gregor Samsa". He finds himself on his own in a large house in a city that seems to be a war zone. A camel-backed woman comes by to repair a defunct lock. Samsa discovers the new emotion of being attracted by the woman.
  • A  final short story turns around a man reflecting on a former girlfriend after receiving a phone call informing that the latter has committed suicide.

A great collection, covering the entire range of Murakami's story-telling, from realist (think Norwegian Wood) to surrealist (think Wind-Up Bird Chronicle). Told in his typically minimalist language, Murakami once more succeeds in creating the magic characteristic of his work. 

Random movie reference.

Favorite quotes:
Will leave that one to the translator.

Sunday, January 1, 2017

How to make a state. Or not.




The second volume of Fukuyama's magisterial work on political development, this time covering the time period since the French revolution. Must read, even though it is slightly weaker than the first volume.

Fukuyama sets out to provide an update to Samuel Huntington's Political Order in Changing Societies. Huntington argued against modernization theory by making the case that different dimensions of development do not necessarily go together. On the contrary, social mobilization resulting from economic modernization may cause new political demands which cannot be accommodated by the political institutions in place. Disorder and violent conflict may be the result.

In the Origins of Political Order, Fukuyama introduced four dimensions of development: social mobilization; economic development; the development of ideas about legitimacy; and political development. Political development, in turn, includes state-building, the rule of law, and democratic accountability. As for state-building, humankind has seen a transition from band-level societies (based on genetic relatives) over tribal societies (based on shared ancestry) to state-based societies. A central step towards modern states is the transition from a patrimonial system- where friends and relatives of the ruler staff important offices- to impersonal bureaucratic rule. The central obstacle to building modern states are the natural human tendencies for kin selection (altruism increases in proportion to the number of genes shared) and reciprocal altruism (the exchange of favors between non-related individuals). The second dimension of political development, the rule of law, has its origins in religious institutions which were charged with interpreting religious texts and were independent of the state. Finally, Origins of Political Order demonstrates how democratic accountability arose (in Europe) out of the conflict between the monarch and the estates.

The first part of Political Order and Political Decay is devoted to state-building (1). Historically, patrimonalism has been overcome in one of two ways: military competition increasing the need for tax revenue which leads to the professionalization of the bureaucracy; or reform coalitions pushing for efficient and un-corrupt administrations. Fukuyama conducts several case studies of state-building. Democratization before the establishment of a strong administration led to pervasive clientelism in Greece, Italy, Britain and the U.S., while the establishment of a modern bureaucracy by a strong authoritarian state, driven by military competition, proved enduring in Prussia/ Germany. Coalitions which ultimately reformed clientelistic states emerged in UK and the US, but not in the low-trust societies of Greece and Southern Italy (2).
In a separate chapter, Fukuyama goes on to establish the distinction between state-building with its focus on tangible institutions from nation-building focused on creation of a sense of national identity. Nation-building is usually achieved through one of four processes: moving borders to fit national identities; moving or eliminating populations to create homogeneous political units; cultural assimilation of identities into the dominant national culture; and adjusting national identities to fit political realities.

The second part of the book deals with political development in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Existing theories of political development point to climate, geography, population density, and different experiences with colonialization as explanatory factors. Higher population densities spur specialization and technological progress, which in turn sets the ground for the development of modern states. Inhabitable flat and open land allows states to project military power and establish a monopoly of force; geographic circumscription prevents tribal units from simply moving away from a centralized political authority exerting pressure on them. Hospitable climates allow for colonial settlement and state-building rather than merely extractive rule. Fukuyama draws upon these theories and shows how the different factors interacted in driving political development on the three continents (3).

Part 3 of the book discusses the origins and spread of democracy. Fukuyama, drawing upon the works of Karl Marx and Barrington Moore "Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy", focusses on economic development and social mobilization as the major explanatory factors. Historically, democracy emerged where a growing middle class displaced an old order dominated by landowners and the peasantry. Democratic consolidation in turn, depends on the positioning of the middle class, which often turns against democratic institutions when it feels threatened by the working class or poorer segments of the population demanding redistribution.

In part 4, Fukuyama deals with the decay of political institutions. Decay usually constitutes a failure to adapt institutions to new circumstances. It occurs in the form of “repatrimonialization” with insiders capturing previously impersonal state institutions, as the natural human tendencies of kin selection and reciprocal altruism come to the fore once more. It can be the result of the cognitive rigidity of elites or of their lacking interest in change. Change can be blocked by elites due to their superior access to resources and information.  
Fukuyama focusses his empirical discussion of political decay on the U.S. The central problem identified by Fukyama is the lack of legislative coherence. Administrative decision-making my either be excessively constrained, or there may be too generous delegations of authority. Fukuyama points to a variety of drivers. First, functions which are handled by administrative bureaucracies in other countries are increasingly taken over by the courts in the US. This leads to costly litigation, slow decision-making and inconsistent law enforcement. Second, Fukuyama argues that interest group influence on Congress has become excessive. This in turn, leads to Congress designing complex and often contradictory mandates for administrative agencies. Third, the US system of checks and balances brings a significant number of veto players with it, providing interest groups with multiple avenues of influence.

Overall, Origins of Political Order and Political Order and Political Decay should be must-read for anybody interested in politics or the development of political institutions. The wealth of empirical material covered in this opus magnum is nothing less than impressive. On the theoretical side, Fukuyama stands be commended for avoiding a mono-causal approach in explaining political development. Instead the careful consideration of path dependence and the interaction of various explanatory factors stand out. This contrasts nicely with for instance Acemoglou and Robinson’s attempt in Why Nations Fail to attribute economic development to a single political variable, the inclusiveness of a countries’ political institutions.
Still, the second volume did not convince me as much as the first one did. While Fukuyama provides great insights on state and nation-building since the French revolution, Political Decay has much less to say on the development of the rule of law and political accountability. Moreover, the book's treatment of political decay struck me as unexpectedly weak. Above all, Fukuyama does not employ a consistent definition and measurement of what he means by political decay. The conceptualization of decay as the repatrimonialization of political institutions which Fukuyama introduces in the beginning of Part 4 does not really feature in his case study of  the United States. Instead, he seems to define political decay as different parts of the U.S. administration having either too much or too little autonomy due to complex legislative mandates. Moreover, as Fukuyama does not offer an empirical measure of the kind of political decay he is interested in, it remains unclear to what degree the US system is really in a state of decay, both from a temporal and from a cross-national perspective.
Nevertheless, in spite of these quips, the book remains an absolute must-read. Moreover, both volumes are also so rich when it comes to theoretical concepts about political development that there is hope that they will inspire a lot of empirical research in the years to come.

Random movie reference:
Political decay and the Simpsons...


(1)   In order to be able to better understand obstacles towards state-building, Fukuyama introduces the concepts of corruption, rents, patronage and clientelism. Corruption is defined as the appropriation of public resources for private gains; Rents as the difference between production costs and a good's price; patronage as the reciprocal exchange between individuals of different status/ power; clientelism as the large-scale exchange of favors and individualized benefits (e.g. public good, public sector jobs) for votes through political machines.
(2)  With full male suffrage in 1864, Greece became one of the first full electoral democracies in Europe. However, a capable state had not been established at this point. This led to a clientelistic system of government. A variety of factors prevented the emergence of a reformist coalition. First, Greece has a tradition of foreign influence and colonialization, which has led to enormous distrust of government. Greek society is consequently focused on kinship ties rather than reforming the state. Moreover, economic modernization in Greece occurred largely without industrial development. While urbanization took place, it consequently just transplanted the patron client relationships that were prevalent in rural areas into an urban context. State employment distributed by political patrons came to be a major source of income for the new urban population, who consequently did not develop an interest to disrupt the status quo.
      Clientelism also remains pervasive in Southern Italy. Like Greece, Southern Italy also witnessed modernization without industrialization; the newly emergent middle class was mainly keen on joining the land-owning oligarchy rather than creating a reformist coalition. A low-trust society has perpetuated itself in Southern Italy, which has been promoted by the rise of organized crime performing certain state functions.
      In the UK, administrative reform was driven by the 1854 report of the Northcote-      Trevelayn commission to parliament which proposed, among others, merit based recruitment and the splitting of clerical duties from higher administrative functions. The report had been driven by the demands of intellectuals and the media in the aftermath of Crimean war. The relatively swift implementation of the report’s was facilitated by the low number of veto players in a Westminster system of government.
      In the U.S. the dismantling of a clientelistic system of party government and the establishment of a professional bureaucracy process was a slower process which took place between 1880 and the 1920s. The roots of administrative reform lie in the 1883 Pendleton Act, which established a (“classified”) merit-based part in the administration, where positions were no longer the prerogative of parties or congress. Driving factors in this process of administrative reform were middle class and business interests, social reformers, and the Republican Party. 
(3)  In Latin America, pre-existing state institutions were eradicated by the Spanish and the Portuguese and supplanted by oligarchic, class-based governments exploiting indigenous labor. The colonizers did not leave a legacy of strong institutions, as geography made military power projection difficult, population densities were not high enough to support the building of powerful states, and economic surpluses in the colonies were not reinvested but exported home. This left a legacy of highly unequal societies and sharp polarization. Moreover, the newly created Latin American states largely lacked national identities based on a joint language or shared ethnicity. From the 19th century on, the newly independent Latin American states did not experience events akin to the French revolution or the intense interstate warfare which facilitated state and nation-building in Europe. Instead, most states in Latin America were marred by internal conflicts reflecting social divisions and inviting continued interventions by external powers.
Sub-Saharan Africa had not yet made the transition from tribal to state-level societies when encountering Western colonizers in the 19th century. This lack of strong state-societies can be explained by low population densities, the lack of inhabitable and open, but at the same time geographically conscribed land, and the often inhospitable climate. As a result, the European powers colonizing Africa relied on indirect rule through local proxies instead of building modern state institutions. Moreover, national identity remained weak with the European mainly replacing tribalism with ethnicity rather than engaging in nation-building. The result were neopatrimonial regimes whose defining features are personalism centered around a president or “big man”, pervasive clientelism, and weak state institutions
Fukuyama’s discussion of political development in East Asia focuses on China and Japan. Both countries already had strong state institutions and national identities before their encounters with the Western world. Leaders, often influenced by Confucian ideals, could thus draw upon strong bureaucracies to modernize their countries’ economies. A difference between East Asian and in East Asia that the development of strong state institutions preceded the establishment rule of law, which resulted in a state-society balance tilted very much towards the state. Unlike in other parts of the world, the major political issue in Asia has thus not been state weakness, but how to restrain states.

Friday, December 23, 2016

Girls, Girls, Girls

Elena Ferrante: The Story of a New Name




Part 2 of Ferrante's quadrology (as for my review of Part 1)... pure rock'n roll it is. Spoilers ahead.

The story begins at Lila's wedding with Stefano Carraci, right where the first book ended. Already during their honeymoon, Lila and Stefano descend into a cycle of provokation and abuse. After a while, however, Lila learns how to manage her violent husband and seems to be settling (or resigning) into the new circumstances. She gets pregnant but loses the baby.
Elena and her neighborhood boyfriend Antonio Cappucio break up, apparently due to to his upcoming military service but mostly due to Elena's continuing affection for Nino Sarratore. At school, Elena is being intellectually promoted by her teacher, Professor Gailani, whose daughter is dating Nino. Elena and Lila have their first longer term fallout after a party at Professor Gailani's place, where Elena moves elegantly in new intellectual circles, while Lila feels awkwardly left out (and jealous of Elena).
They reconcile and decide to spend summer holidays together in Ischia. The stay proves to be a decisive turning point for the two womens' story. Elena's secret intention behind the holidays is to be close to Nino, who is also in Ischia. In what is one of the most gripping parts of the novel, we see the slow unfolding of an affair between Lila and Nino. Elena, visibly under shock, reacts by spending a night with Nino's father. Another prolonged break ensues between Elena and Lila.
Elena gets accepted into university at Pisa, while Nino and Lila continue their affair. After running away from Stefano for a couple of weeks, Nino breaks up with Lila and she returns, pregnant, to her husband. In the coming years, Lila is all focused on raising her son Gennaro. At the same time, Stefano begins an affair with the sales clerk in his family's grocery.
The story ends with Lila running off with her long-term admirer, Enzo Scanno, and her son Gennaro. In order to make ends meet, Lila takes up work in a meat factory. While Lila and Enzo are not romantically involved, they seem to form an increasingly deep bond, united in studying together late at night. In the end of the story, Elena gets her first novel published, starting a promising literary career.

"My brilliant friend" was already a great read, but, in retrospect, it was no comparison to the second part of the Naples novels. The story really picks up pace, especially after Lila and Nino begin their affair in Ischia. As said before, Ferrante provides one of the best depictions of friendship and the lives of young adult's in all their complexity. The innocence that was still somehow there in Part 1 is lost. To use a concept introduced by Lila, the margins of the characters are "dissolving" in a microcosm of adultery, rivalry and violence. All this takes place against the contemporary social habits and politics of 1960's Italy which Ferrante so brilliantly depicts ... overall, nothing less than amazing. 

Random movie reference:
Difficult one. The whole dynamic between Elena, Lila and Nino kind of remotely reminded me of Noodles, Max and Deborah in Once Upon a Time in America. 

Favorite quotes: 
"I understood only later that I can be quietly unhappy, because I am incapable of violent reactions. I fear them, I prefer to be still, cultivating resentment. Not Lila." (Elena)

"I got low marks in chemistry, art history, and philosophy, and my nerves were so frayed that right after the last bad grade I burst into tears in front of everyone. It was a horrible moment: I felt the horror and pleasure of losing myself, the fear and the pride in going off the rails." (Elena)

"I started to borrow novels from the circulating library, and read one after the other. But in the long run they didn't help. They presented intense lives, profound conversations, a phantom reality more appealing than my real life." (Elena)

"Even if you are better than me, even if you know more things, don't leave me." (Lina to Elena)

"She had felt the need to humiliate me in order to better endure her own humiliation." (Elena about Lina after the party at Professor Gailani's which led to their fall-out)

"She was born like that, she could have learned the art of engraving merely by studying the gestures of a goldsmith, and then be able to work the gold better than he." (Elena about Lina)

"Neither she nor I would ever have him. But both of us, for the entire time of the vacation, could gain his attention, she as the object of a passion with no future, I as the wise counselor who kept under control both his folly and hers. I consoled myself with that hypothesis of centrality." (Elena about Lila when Lila's affair with Nino is about to begin)

"The more Lina is surrounded by affection and admiration, the crueler she can become. She's always been like that." (Elena to Nino about Lila)

"Naples had been very useful in Pisa, but Pisa was no use in Naples, it was an obstacle. Good manners, cultured voice and appearance, the crush in my head and on my tongue of what I had learned in books were all immediate signs of weakness that made me a secure prey, one of those who don't struggle." (Elena about her return to Naples)

"I understood that ... I had made the whole journey mainly to show her what she had lost and what I had won. But... she was explaining to me that I had won nothing, that in the world there is nothing to win, that her life was full of varied and foolish adventures as much as mine, and that time simply slipped away without any meaning, and it was good just to see each other so often to hear the mad sound of the brain of one echo in the mad sound of the brain of the other." (Elena about her meeting with Lina in the end of the book)

Sunday, November 6, 2016

Männer

David Szalay: All That Man Is





Made the Man Booker shortlist this year. A good read. Szalay presents short stories that revolve around men at different stages of their lives:

  • Two young Brits travelling through Europe on interrail. While in Prague, one of them ends spending the night with the married owner of the apartment they are staying at.
  • A young unemployed Frenchman on holidays in Cyprus where he meets meets a massively obese British mother and daughter couple.
  • A Hungarian former soldier who falls in love with the prostitute he protects in London.
  • A Belgian professor on a road trip through Germany. His young girlfriend has just discovered she is pregnant.
  • A Danish journalist who visits his country's minister of defense on holidays in Spain to confront the latter about an affair he has had.
  • A married British real estate developer who, while on a business trip to Switzerland, is being hit on by a younger colleague of his.
  • A British pensioner who has emigrated to Croatia and whose life is thrown off balance when his only friend in town begins an affair with a younger woman.
  • A Russian oligarch who is at the brink of financial ruin and whose wife is divorcing him. The oligarch heads for his yacht in the Aegean sea to commit suicide.
  • A British retired civil servant at his holiday home in Italy who is looking back at his life while recovering from heart surgery and an accident .
Overall, definitely nice to read. Szalay's realism and attention to detail in describing the various scenarios is captivating. It is also fascinating to follow the nine men at different stages of their lives. Moreover, Szalay has written a truly European novel, whose settings span the entire continent. Still, while the short stories are really great, the book as whole didn't entirely click with me. One of the reasons may be that it remains unclear whether the book works as a novel or is better read as a loose collection of short stories.

Random movie association:
Still working on that one. But if the book needed a soundtrack, Grönemeyer would have provided it.

Favorite quotes:
"As he had been intent on enacting his own long-standing fantasy, so she had been enacting a fantasy of her own, in no way less elfish. Except that she was nineteen or twenty, and still entitled to selfishness- not having learned yet, how easily and lastingly people are hurt- and he was more than ten years older and ought to have understood that by now."

"That's the thing about fate, the way you only understand what your fate is when it's too late to do anything about it. That's why it is your fate- it's too late to do anything about it."

'Tell me ... have you got a hobby?' 'A hobby? ... No' He has never had a hobby- in his Who's Who entry, he had listed 'interests' as 'wealth' and 'power'.

"Slowly they made their peace with the place, until they felt a kind of love for it. You learn to love what's there, not what's not there. How can you live, otherwise?"

"Amemus eterna et non peritura. Amemus- Let us love. Eterna- that which is eternal. Et non peritura- and not that which is transient." 

Sunday, October 30, 2016

Girls just Wanna Have Fun

Elena Ferrante: My Brilliant Friend




This is the first part of Elena Ferrante's "quadrology" about the friendship between two Napolitan girls which spans multiple decades. A great, great read, and one of the best coming off age stories/ "Bildungsromane" I have read in recent years. I understand where the international hype around those books is coming from...

The story begins with the disappearance of Lila Cerullo, who has apparently realized her long-standing desire to escape from her life without leaving a trace. This event inspires her friend Elena Greco to tell "their" story, going back to the Napolitan neighborhood they both grew up in the 1950s.
Both girls come from simple backgrounds. Lila is the daughter of a shoemaker, Elena of a porter at the city hall. They start to bond when attending primary school. Even though Lila is the academically more successful, it is only Elena who gets to continue her education; Lila learns how to make shoes in her father and brother's shop. Lila gets increasingly sucked into the world of shoe-making, hoping to get rich through hand-made shoes designed by her and her brother Rino. At the same time, she keeps on studying with Elena, which, due to the ever-present rivalry between the two girls, pushes the latter to become an increasingly successful student.  
The love lives of the two girls become increasingly important in the later parts of the book. Marcello Solara, whose family owns a bar-pastry shop and maintains ties to organized crime, starts to pursue Lila, much to her disliking. In order to escape from Marcello, Lila turns towards Stefano Carraci, son of the late godfather of the neighborhood, but now seemingly making a decent living in his family's grocery store. Elena, in turn, is in love with the Nino, the son of Donato Sarratore, a railroad worker, poet and womanizer. Elena is especially attracted by Nino's intellectual side and the fact that he seems to have developed beyond the confines of their neighborhood. However, apart from a kiss during a holiday, nothing happens between the two. Ever jealous of Lila and her relationship with Stefano, Elena takes Antonio Cappucio, a local mechanic, as her boyfriend. Without providing too many spoilers, the story finishes with Lila and Stefano's wedding, which turns out to run different than anticipated....

The book provides a colorful depiction of the Napolitan neighborhood the two girls grow up in, to include the various families that live in it. It also offers great insights into the social conventions of the time, with for instance Lila only being able to escape the advances of Marcello Solara by getting married to somebody else. Admittedly, I am no expert on female friendships. Still, Ferrante delivers what is probably one of the most interesting depictions of friendship- in all its complexity- I have ever read. Lila and Elena are not only best friends for each other, but also rivals, role models (especially Lila to Elena) and surrogates allowing one to live the life she herself cannot have (Elena to Lina). Nothing less than impressive.

Random movie reference:
Something from the godfather. Raising the question of whether we can ever get over our heritage..

Favorite quotes:
"The thing was happening to her that she later called dissolving margins. It was- she told me- as if, on the night of a full moon over the sea, the intense black mass of a storm advanced across the sky, swallowing every light, eroding the circumference of the moon's circle and disfiguring the shining disk, reducing it to its true nature of rough insensate material." (Elena about Lila's idea of "dissolving margins")

"I was afraid of what was happening to her, good or bad in my absence. It was an old fear, a fear that has never left me: the fear that, in losing pieces of her life, mine lost intensity and importance." (Elena about Lina not writing during her holidays)

"Out of vanity he would hurt anyone and never feel responsible. Since he is convinced that he makes everybody happy, he thinks that everything is forgiven him." (Nino about her father).

"Nino has something that's eating him inside, like Lila, and it's a gift and a suffering; they aren't content, they never give in, they fear what is happening around them." (Elena about Nino)

"The beauty of mind that Cerullo had from childhood didn't find an outlet, Greco, and it has all ended up in her face, in her breasts, in her thighs, in her ass, places where it soon fades and it will be as if she had never had it." (Their former teacher about Lila)

"But now I felt good and I wanted to feel even better. When Antonio, guessing that I was in the right mood, asked if I wanted to be his girlfriend, I said yes right away, even though I loved someone else, even if I felt for him nothing but some friendliness." (Elena about her boyfriend Antonio)

"It had been very energizing to win praise from those who seemed to me better ... taking sides against those who seemed to me worse ... and yet to behave toward the adversaries in such a way as not to lose their friendship and respect." (Elena)

"I thought how contradictory she was, without realizing it, with her rages, with those imperious gestures. She hadn't wanted me to go to school, but now that I was going to school she considered me better than the boys I had grown up with, and she understood, as I myself did, that my place was not among them." (Elena about Lina)

"Yes, you're right, I don't know what I am and what I really want, I use you and then I throw you away, but it's not my fault, I feel half and half, forgive me." (Elena about her feelings towards Antonio)

Sunday, September 4, 2016

A Few Good Men



A “great American novel”. Probably the best of the four US-American classics I have read this summer.
The story takes place over the course of three years in a small town, Maycomb, in 1930’s Alabama. It centers on lawyer Atticus Finch, his son Jem and daughter Jean Louise a.k.a. ”Scout”. A widower, Atticus has mostly been raising his children on his own. He is a soft-spoken man, but tries to set an example for his children through his morally righteous behavior. A coming off age story, there are numerous sub-plots which describe small town life in the American South:
  •  In the beginning of the story, Scout is just starting school. Thanks to her family’s black cook, Calpurnia, she already knows how to read and write. This, and Scout's "smarty pants" attempt (I admittedly googled this expression...) to explain Maycomb’s peculiarities to her teacher from out of town creates significant conflict at school. 
  • Dill Harris (1), a boy who spends his summers with his aunt in Maycomb, becomes Jem’s and Scout’s best friend and kind of Scout’s first boyfriend. Together, the children aim to lure reclusive Arthur “Boo” Railey, who essentially hasn’t been seen in public since his teenage days, out of his house. It does not become clear whether Boo is staying in his house voluntarily or whether he is being kept from going out by his brother Nathan. Boo seems to be reaching out to the children by leaving them little gifts in a hole in a tree, before Nathan puts an end to this.
  • The children are good friends with Miss Maudie Atkinson, their neighbor from across the street who grew up together with Atticus. She feels kind of apart from the “foot-washing Baptists” of Maycomb who condemn the pride Miss Maudie takes in gardening. In the course of the story, Miss Maudie’s house burns down and she is forced to move in with a neighbor, an event to which she reacts stoically.
  • In the latter parts of the story, Atticus' sister, Aunt Alexandra, moves in with the Finchens and attempts to turn the rather boyish Scout into more of a Southern lady, which leads the two to clash with each other repeatedly.
The book’s core, however, is the story of Atticus taking over the legal defense of a black man, Tom Robinson. Robinson has been accused of rape by Mayella Ewell. Mayella is one of eight children from a family that very much stems from the social fringe of Maycomb. After Atticus accepts the mandate, parts of Maycomb’s society and even their own extended family ostracize Jem and Scout for racist reasons. During the trial, Atticus succeeds to demonstrate that the injuries that Mayella sustained were likely inflicted by her drinking, violent father Bob. Moreover, Robinson also plausibly argues that Mayella had actually tried to seduce him. In spite of the strong case of the defense, the jury still finds Tom Robinson guilty of rape, a crime for which he is likely to end up on the electric chair. Atticus and his childrens' faith in the judicial system is badly shaken. Moreover, Bob Ewell sees that the trial has damaged his already low credibility in Maycomb. He is out for revenge against anybody involved in the trial. Events take a turn to the worse, but I won’t spoil the ending for anybody who hasn’t read the book, yet.

A fascinating combination: the book is written from a child’s perspective (or retrospective?), but deals with deeply adult topics such as racism and social boundaries. It also provides the perfect description of what I would imagine a childhood in the southern states to be like: porches, kids playing in the nature, families going back generations, Baptism, Southern ladies meeting for tea and cake etc. The court room drama of Atticus mounting a defense for Tom Robinson is gripping. At times, the description is so perfect that the novel almost conveys the feeling of watching a movie. Moreover, the main protagonist, Atticus Finch, is a morally righteous but at the same time three-dimensional figure, not the easiest combination for a writer to achieve. Overall, highly recommended. Comes out ahead of Steinbeck’s “Of Mice and Men” and Salinger’s “Catcher in the Rye”. Well, and I won’t be talking about Kerouac’s “On the Road”. Ever again.
Next on the list of American classics: John Steinbeck's "The Grapes of Wrath".       

Random movie reference:

Favorite quotes:
“There are just some kind of men who are so busy worrying about the next world they’ve never learned to live in this one, and you can look down the street and see the results.”(Miss Maudie)

“People in their right minds never take pride in their talents.” (Miss Maudie, again, smart woman).

“The one thing that doesn’t abide by majority rule is a person’s conscience” (Atticus)

“Real courage … ‘s when you know you are licked before you begin but you begin anyway and you see it through no matter what.” (Atticus)

“With him, life was routine; without him life was unbearable. I stayed miserable for two days.” (Scout)

“Serving on a jury forces a man to make up his mind and declare himself about something. Men don’t like to do that. Sometimes it’s unpleasant.” (Atticus)

“Atticus, he was really nice” … “Most people are, Scout, when you finally see them.”

Notes:
(1) Interestingly, Dill is based on Truman Capote, a childhood friend of Harper Lee. In this incarnation, Capote seems significantly less annoying than the Philipp Seymour Hoffmann version I had in mind.

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Back to the Future




Tetlock and Gardner’s book is a popular account of the Good Judgement Project, a tournament on forecasting geopolitical events which ran from 2011 to 2015. Of interest to, well, anybody interested in making forecasts.

About 2800 forecasters were asked to provide predictions for more than 500 questions. The forecasters had to assign probabilities to whether specific outcomes (e.g. the number of Syrian refugees crossing a certain threshold) would occur within a defined time frame (e.g. the next three months). While it is impossible to evaluate a single probabilistic forecast, a series of forecasts can be evaluated according to two criteria: calibration- when forecasters assign 20%, 30%, or 40% probabilities, these events should happen 20%, 30%, or 40% of times, and resolution- forecasters should assign high probabilities to events that eventually do happen and low probabilities to events that don’t.

Superforecasting is a successor to Expert PoliticalJudgement (EPJ), a book based on a forecasting tournament Tetlock ran in the 1980s and 1990s. EPJ presented two major findings: the average forecaster did no better than randomly guessing outcomes would have done, and experts who based their judgment on many different analytical approaches (whom Tetlock labelled “foxes”) were more accurate than experts whose thinking was based on one big idea or ideology (“hedgehogs”).  Tetlock’s current book takes this investigation into the sources of variation in forecasting skill one step further. He and his co-author Gardner focus on “superforecasters”, the best participants in the tournament who did significantly better than chance or other forecasters. Superforecasters scored consistently well over the course of the tournament, with roughly 70% of forecasters in one year keeping this status in the next year as well.

Tetlock demonstrates that superforecasters have a couple of intellectual characteristics in common: higher scores on intelligence and knowledge tests, numerical literacy, and active open mindedness. What is most striking about superforecasters, however, is that they also share a certain approach to forecasting: 
  • they first unpack every question into its components, separating between components that can be known and those that cannot (e.g. which scenarios are imaginable for the U.S. to intervene in Syria?);
  • they then start by taking an outside view, i.e. establish a baseline probability for the event to be forecast as part of a larger class of events (e.g. what is the baseline probability for the U.S. to militarily intervene in a civil war in the Middle East?);
  • they then take an inside view i.e. take into account the particularities of the case in question as well as the various causal factors at play (e.g. which specific attributes of the Syrian crisis might drive the U.S. to intervene?); 
  • they make sure to compare their view to other views;
  • and, finally, they synthesize all the information into a probability judgement.
Superforecasters also react to news in line with Bayes’ theorem, i.e. they neither under- nor over-react to new evidence, but instead update their assessments based on their prior beliefs as well as the diagnostic value of new information. Finally, superforecasters were even better when put together in teams. Teams of superforecasters were good at avoiding both extremes that may affect teamwork- internal wars and group think- and managed to outperform prediction markets.

Tetlock also compares his results with the black swan approach to forecasting popularized by Nassim Taleb. Black swans are extreme and improbable, but highly consequential events (e.g. World War I). According to Taleb, historical probabilities (possible ways in which history could unfold) have a fat-tailed, not a normal distribution, meaning that black swans are vastly more likely to occur than is often assumed. Against this objection, Tetlock puts forward that most of history proceeds incrementally rather than in the form of a constant stream of extreme events. Moreover, the consequences of black swan events take time to develop and can be broken down into distinct questions that can be forecast. While it would for instance have been impossible to predict the storming of the Bastille, some of the events that followed would at least have been partially predictable.

Overall, a great project and a fascinating read. Tetlock and Gardner do a good job creating an accessible account of what may easily be one of this decade’s most important social science projects. However, while the book has been compared to Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking. Fast and Slowly”, it does not entirely live up to the comparison. First, there is of course a huge difference in terms of the scope and wealth of material covered. Kahneman covered multiple decades of research in cognitive psychology, while Tetlock focuses on one research project. Moreover, while Kahneman also aimed to reach a broader audience, he seemed to have more confidence in his readers grasping complex issues than Tetlock and Gardner. Some chapters, for instance on the book’s implications for executive leadership style, are nice to read, but remain quite superficial and do not add much to the book’s central message. In spite of these minor quibbles, this is still an important and informative book. Hoping that there will be a follow-up more geared towards an academic audience, though…
Next on my social science reading list is Fukuyama's "Political Order and Political Decay", possibly to be followed by McAdam, Tarrow and Tilly's "Dynamics of Contention" and Della Porta's "Clandestine Political Violence"....

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